Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
